Last year's build was a bit of a surprise -- EIA came in at 19 Bcf and the market was largely in the 24-plus Bcf neighborhood -- but, EIA's report number was later adjusted to 26 Bcf. This year, we're looking at the same basic neighborhood, but slightly higher. Also last year, this time, the tally was a chart topping 3,840 Bcf -- highest ever. The Nov. 10, 2010, report was the next to last EIA build of the year. The report on the 18th deliverd a 3 Bcf build, which ultimately capped the injection season. We're still thinking we'll top last year's high number. Last week, the East came in a bit low. This week, scrapes seem a bit low in the Producing region. The market seems to be solidly at 32 Bcf for the week, though the Metro Desk Consensus Average is a bit higher at 33.7, and our median this week is 34 Bcf. Our editor is a bit high again this week at 38 Bcf, roughly 4 Bcf higher than the market. We note that while the average range between the three categories we track -- surveys, bank analysts and independant analysts -- is only about 1.6 Bcf, the range of the median scores of the three categories we track is 3 Bcf -- the magic number. Recall when the range between the three categories is 3 Bcf or higher, there is a very high probability there will be a 5 Bcf surprise or more. We've never had a situation where the median range is a higher range then the average, so, we'll have to wait and see. Our tealeaves suggests that the market is a bit low this week, as it was low last week. Last week the market (at 71) was surprised by the 78 Bcf build. Last year, same thing. We smell a slight surprise to the upside tomorrow. Just saying.

Dan Biegler of Macquarie Energy (at 31 Bcf this week) said that his storage facility scrape model forecasts a 32 bcf injection for the week ending 04-Nov-2011, while the econometric model predicts a 27 bcf injection. His final estimate of a 31 bcf injection. "Our nationwide consumption-weighted HDDs totaled 105, an increase of 37 week/week; Canadian net imports totaled 5.3 bcf/d, down -0.2 bcf/d week/week; LNG sendout totaled 0.6 bcf/d, down -0.2 bcf/d week/week; Mexico exports totaled 1.2 bcf/d, flat to last week. We are estimating an end of heating season storage level of 2.1 Tcf. This assumes some combination of colder than normal weather and/or increased coal-gas switching. Normal weather and no incremental coal-gas switching could lead to end of season levels around 2.4 Tcf.

The good folks at UBS are looking for a build of 40 Bcf this week. "We estimate inventories increased to 3,834 Bcf, tightening the deficit vs. 2010 to 6 Bcf and widening the surplus vs. the 5-year average to 212 Bcf. Last week, weather was 10% warmer than the year-ago week but 25% cooler than the 5-year average. Since September, weather has been 6% colder than last year but 5% warmer than the 5-year average. Roughly 92% of HDDs remain ahead of us. We estimate the weather-adjusted S/D balance the loosened ~1 Bcf/d WoW for the week ending 10/28, and has been roughly 4.5 Bcf/d oversupplied vs. the 5-year average and 2.8 Bcf/d oversupplied vs. 2010 over the last month. The large shoulder season injections are highlighting the current state of oversupply. With storage commencing the winter at ~3.8 Tcf (0.2 Tcf above normal), we forecast inventories bottom on 3/31 at 2.2 Tcf (0.6 Tcf above normal and 0.4 Tcf above the 2006 record high)."  

Ben Smith of First Enercast Financial (at 31 Bcf this week) says that this week's storage included the northeast snow storm from the previous weekend. "The event slightly reduced power demand as outages were widespread, however, total residential heating demand was much higher than normal. Weather normalized electricity generation demand for natural gas has remained strong this shoulder season indicating that utilities are continuing to favor natural gas over coal. Last weeks nuclear maintenance was lighter than last year and the 5-year average," he says. Smith also noted that industrial demand continues to show signs of improvement. "Helping meet improved weather driven demand, imports from Canada increased by around 400 mmcf/day and imports in the form of LNG also increased last week by around 80mmcf/day."